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Article: 10011 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!ceres.physics.uiowa.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!ames!xn.ll.mit.edu!xn!srf
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From: srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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Date: 26 Mar 91 01:10:57 GMT
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Sender: usenet@xn.ll.mit.edu
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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Organization: M.I.T. Lincoln Lab - Group 43
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Lines: 433
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Here is the much requested list of people associated with the JFK
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assassination whose deaths are called convenient. Bear in mind that
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this is a terse summary of each individual's circumstances in relation
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to the case. Therefore, you may not get the full appreciation of why
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a particular death is suspicious. An asterisk indicates that a death is
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particularly suspicious. Some
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These deaths were part of why the House Select Committee on Assassinations
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investigation got started. However, they concluded that due to the highly
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varied backgrounds of people involved, a proper actuarial study was not
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possible.
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Aside from the likelihood of x number of deaths over a period of time
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of people connected with an invenstigation, there is also the trend that
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the number of deaths actually increased closer to the time of these
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investigations. The listing below is grouped by investigation. Note that
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in 1977, for example, before the HSCA investigation kicked off, six top
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FBI officials scheduled to appear before the HSCA died. William C. Sullivan,
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for example, was out hunting, when he was shot by a man with a high-powered
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rifle who said he mistook Sullivan for a deer. This was *not* investigated
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by anyone. And so it goes.
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Some of the causes of death listed appear on the surface to be natural.
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Keep in mind that the CIA developed methods to "make it look like an
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accident". This was documented through the testimony of CIA technicians
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to the Church committee who told of TWEP technology (Termination With
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Extreme Prejudice) in 1975. These methods are designed to not be detected
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in postmortem examinations. I have a couple of exerpts of declassified
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CIA documents to demonstrate the case. One of the techniques involves
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the injection of cancer cells, heart attack inducement, as well as non-
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chemical techniques which require no special equipment. Based on the
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strange circumstances of Jack Ruby's death in prison (he died from lung
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cancer but the cancer cells were not the type that originate in the
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respiratory system). Ruby wrote notes and spoke to several people saying
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that jfk was killed by a conspiracy and that he had been maneuvered into
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killing Oswald who was a fall guy. He claimed to have been injected with
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cancer cells when treated with shots for a cold. He died just before he
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was to testify in Congress. He had told congressional investigators that
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he wanted to talk but he needed protection.
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This list does not include the names of the many people who claimed that
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their lives were threatened physically and verbally, as well as the many
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people questioned by the FBI who were intimidated and forced to change their
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testimony to agree with the official lone-gunman version.
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This list is not meant to be proof of a conspiracy. I believe a conspiracy
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took place based on a plethora of circumstantial evidence, many involving
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questions that are very strange if we are to believe the lone-gunman theory.
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Many of the points I have raised can be rationally explained, but it is the
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confluence of many aspects of the case which make me doubt the official
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version of events more than anything else.
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The Warren Commission
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date name connection with case cause of death
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-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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11/63 karyn kupcinet* tv host's daughter overheard murdered
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telling of jfk's death prior
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to 11/22/63
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12/63 jack zangretti* expressed foreknowlege of gunshot victim
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ruby shooting oswald
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2/64 eddy benavides* look-alike brother to gunshot to head
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tippit shooting witness,
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domingo benavides
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2/64 betty mcdonald* former ruby employee who suicide by hanging
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alibied warren reynolds in dallas jail
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shooting suspect
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3/64 bill chesher thought to have information heart attack
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linking oswald and ruby
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3/64 hank killam* husband of ruby employee, throat cut
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knew oswald acquaintance
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4/64 bill hunter* reporter who was in ruby's accidental shooting
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apartment on 11/24/63 by policeman
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5/64 gary underhill* cia agent who claimed agency gunshot in head ruled
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was involved suicide
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5/64 hugh ward* private investigator working plane crash in mexico
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with guy bannister and david
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ferrie
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5/64 delesseps * new orleans mayor passenger in ward's
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morrison plane
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8/64 teresa norton* ruby employee fatally shot
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6/64 guy banister* ex-fbi agent in new orleans heart attack
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connected to ferrie, cia,
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carlos marcello, oswald
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9/64 jim koethe* reporter who was in ruby's blow to neck
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apartment on 11/24/63
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9/64 c.d.jackson life mag senior vp who unknown
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bought zapruder film and
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locked it away
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10/64 mary pinchot* jfk mistress whose diary murdered
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meyer was taken by cia chief
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james angleton after her
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death
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1/65 paul mandal life writer who told of jfk cancer
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turning to rear when shot in
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throat
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3/65 tom howard* ruby's first lawyer, was in heart attack
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ruby's apartment on 11/24/63
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5/65 maurice gatlin* pilot for guy banister fatal fall
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8/65 mona b. saenz* texas employment clerk who hit by dallas bus
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interviewed oswald
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?/65 david goldstein dallasite who helped fbi trace natural causes
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oswald's pistol
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9/65 rose cheramie* knew of assassination in hit/run victim
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advance, told of riding to
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dallas with cubans
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11/65 dorothy * columnist who had private drug overdose
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kilgallen interview with ruby, pledged
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to "break jfk case"
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11/65 mrs earl smith* close friend to dorothy kil- unknown
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gallen, died two days after
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columnist, may have kept notes
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12/65 william whaley* cab driver who reportedly drove motor collision (the
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oswald to oak cliff only dallas taxi driver
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to die on duty
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1966 judge joe brown presided over ruby's trial heart attack
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1966 karen "little ruby employee who last talked gunshot victim
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lynn" carlin* with ruby before oswald
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shooting
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1/66 earline roberts oswald's landlady heart attack
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2/66 albert bogard* car salesman who said oswald suicide
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test drove new car
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6/66 capt. frank dallas police captain who cancer
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martin witnessed oswald slaying, told
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warren commission, "there's
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alot to be said but probably
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be better if i don't say it."
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8/66 lee bowers,jr.* witnessed man behind picket motor accident
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fence on grassy knoll
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9/66 marilyn ruby dancer shot by husband
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"delilah"* after one month
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walle of marriage
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10/66 william pitzer* jfk autopsy photographer who gunshot, ruled
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described his duty as a suicide
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"horrifying experience"
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11/66 jimmy levens fort worth nightclub owner natural causes
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who hired ruby employees
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11/66 james worrell* saw man flee rear of texas motor accident
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schoolbook depository
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1966 clarence oliver d.a. investigator who worked unknown
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ruby case.
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12/66 hank suydam life mag official in charge heart attack
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of jfk stories
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The Garrison Inquiry
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date name connection with case cause of death
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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1967 Leonard Pullin civilian navy employee who one-car crash
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helped film "last two days"
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about assassination
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1/67 jack ruby* oswald's slayer lung cancer (he told
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family he was injected
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with cancer cells)
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2/67 harold russell* saw escape of tippit killer killed by cop in
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barroom brawl
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2/67 david ferrie* acquaintance of oswald, blow to neck, ruled
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garrison suspect, employee accidental
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of guy bannister
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2/67 eladio del anti-castro cuban associate gunshot wound, ax wound
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valle * of david ferrie being sought to head
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by garrison
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3/67 dr. mary ferrie associate working on died in fire, possibly
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sherman * cancer research shot
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1/68 a.d. bowie asst dallas d.a. prosecuting cancer
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ruby
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4/68 hiram ingram dallas deputy sheriff, close cancer
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friend to roger craig
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5/68 dr. nicholas new orleans coroner who ruled heart attack
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chetta on death of ferrie
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8/68 philip geraci* friend of perry russo, told electrocution
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of oswald/shaw conversation
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1/69 henry delaune* brother-in-law to coroner chetta murdered
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1/69 e.r. walthers* dallas deputy sheriff who was shot by felon
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involved in depository search,
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claimed to have found .45
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caliber slug
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1969 charles filmed rifle other than heart attack
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mantesana mannlicher-carcano being taken
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from depository
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4/69 mary bledsoe neighbor to oswald, also new natural causes
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ferrie
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4/69 john crawford* close friend to both ruby and crash of private plane
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wesley frazier, who gave ride
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to oswald on 11/22/63
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7/69 rev. clyde scheduled to testify about clay fatally shot
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johnson * shaw oswald connection
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1970 george mcmann* underworld figure connected murdered
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to ruby's friends; wife took
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film in dealey plaza
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1/70 darrel garner arrested for shooting warren drug overdose
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reynolds, released after
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alibi from betty mcdonald
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8/70 bill decker dallas sheriff who saw bullet natural causes
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hit street in front of jfk
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8/70 abraham took famous film of jfk assass, natural causes
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zapruder
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12/70 salvatore mobster linked to hoffa, murdered
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granello* trafficante,castro assassination
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plots
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1971 james plumeri* mobster tied to mob-cia murdered
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assassination plots
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3/71 clayton fowler ruby's chief defense atty. unknown
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4/71 gen. charles cia deputy director connected collapsed and died
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cabell * to anti-castro cubans after physical at
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fort myers
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The Church Committee Investigation
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date name connection to case cause of death
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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1972 hale boggs* house majority leader, member disappeared on alaskan
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of warren commission who began plane flight
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to publicly express doubts
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about findings
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5/72 j edgar hoover* fbi director who pushed "lone heart attack (no
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assassin" theory autopsy)
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9/73 thomas davis* gun runner connected to both electrocuted trying
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ruby and cia to steal wire
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2/74 j.a. milteer* miami right-winger who heater explosion
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predicted jfk's death and
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capture of scapegoat to a
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police informant
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1974 dave yaras* close friend to both Hoffa murdered
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and jack ruby
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7/74 earl warren chief justice who reluctantly heart failure
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chaired warren commission
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8/74 clay shaw* prime suspect in garrison possible cancer
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case, reportedly a cia
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contact with ferrie and
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e. howard hunt
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1974 earle cabell mayor of dallas on 11/22/63 natural causes
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whose brother, gen charles
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cabell, was fired from cia
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by jfk
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6/75 sam giancana* chicago mafia boss slated to murdered
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tell about cia-mob death
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plots to senate committee
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1975 clyde tolson j edgar hoovers asst and natural causes
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roommate
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7/75 allan sweatt dallas deputy sheriff involved natural causes
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in investigation
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12/75 gen. earl contact between cia and jfk unknown
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wheeler
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1976 ralph paul ruby's business partner heart attack
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connected with crime figures
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4/76 dr. charles gov john connally's physician heart attack
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gregory
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6/76 william harvey* cia coordinator for cia-mob complications of
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assassination plans against heart surgery
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castro
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7/76 john roselli* mobster who testified to stabbed and stuffed
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senate, was to appear again in metal drum
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House Select Committee on Assassinations
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date name connection with case cause of death
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-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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1/77 william pawley* former brazilian embassador gunshot, ruled suicide
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connected to anti-castro cubans
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and crime figures
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3/77 george * close friend to both oswald and gunshot wound, ruled
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demohrenschildt bouvier family (jackie kennedy's suicide
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parents), cia contract agent
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3/77 carlos prio* formerly cuban president, gunshot wound, ruled
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soccaras money man for anti-castro cubans suicide
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3/77 paul raigorodsky business friend of george natural causes
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demohrenschildt and wealthy
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oilman
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5/77 lou staples* dallas radio talk show host gunshot wound to head
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who told friends he would ruled suicide
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break assassination case
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6/77 louis nichols former number-3 man in fbi heart attack
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worked on jfk assassination
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8/77 alan belmont fbi official who testified to "long illness"
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warren commission
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8/77 james cadigan fbi document expert who fall in home
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testified to warren commission
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8/77 joseph ayres* chief steward on jfk's air shooting accident
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force one
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8/77 francis powers* u-2 pilot downed in russia in helicopter crash (he
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1960 reportedly ran out
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of fuel
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9/77 kenneth jfk's closest aide natural causes
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o'donnell
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10/77 donald kaylor fbi fingerprint chemist heart attack
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10/77 j.m. english former head of fbi forensic heart attack
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sciences laboratory
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11/77 william former number-3 man in fbi, hunting accident
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sullivan * headed division 5, counter-
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espionage and domestic intelligence
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1978 c.l. "lummie" dallas deputy sheriff who natural causes
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lewis arrested mafia man braden in
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dealey plaza
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9/78 garland slack man who said oswald fired at unknown
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his target at rifle range
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1/79 bill lovelady depository employee said to complications from
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be man in doorway in ap heart attack
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photo
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6/80 jesse curry dallas police chief at time of heart attack
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assassination
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6/80 dr. john psychiatrist who testified ruby heart attack, but pills
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holbrook was not insane and notes found
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1/81 marguerite mother of accused assassin cancer
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oswald
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10/81 frank watts chief felony prosecutor for natural causes
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dallas d.a.
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1/82 peter gregory original translator for marina natural causess
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oswald and secret service
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5/82 dr. james pathologist allowed to see jfk died while jogging,
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weston autopsy material for hsca ruled natural causes
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8/82 will griffin fbi agent who said oswald cancer
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"definitely an informant"
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10/82 w. marvin fbi official who helped natural causes
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gheesling supervise jfk investigation
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3/84 roy kellerman secret service agent in charge unknown
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of jfk limousine
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Source: "Crossfire", Jim Marrs, Carroll and Graf, 1989.
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--
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Steve Feinstein
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+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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| INTERNET: srf@juliet.ll.mit.edu |
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| USmail: S. Feinstein, MIT Lincoln Lab, 29 Hartwell Ave., |
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| Lexington, MA 02173 USA |
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| VOICE: (617) 981-4017 |
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+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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Article: 10013 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!ceres.physics.uiowa.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!samsung!spool.mu.edu!
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news.nd.edu!mentor.cc.purdue.edu!purdue!haven!umd5!emanon.cs.jhu.edu!arromdee
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From: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
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Date: 26 Mar 91 04:26:30 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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Organization: Johns Hopkins University CS Dept.
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Lines: 18
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In article <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
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>
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> Here is the much requested list of people associated with the JFK
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>assassination whose deaths are called convenient. Bear in mind that
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Here's a project for you: Count how many people are associated with the JFK
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assasination, either dead or alive.
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Now figure how many of those people should have been expected, according to
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statistics, to die in the 20 year period referred to.
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Now compare to the size of your list.
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--
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"If God can do anything, can he float a loan even he can't repay?"
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--Blair Houghton, cross-posting
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Kenneth Arromdee (UUCP: ....!jhunix!arromdee; BITNET: arromdee@jhuvm;
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INTERNET: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu)
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Article: 10016 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!ceres.physics.uiowa.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!wuarchive!mit-eddie!xn.ll.mit.edu!xn!srf
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From: srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <SRF.91Mar26091329@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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Date: 26 Mar 91 15:13:29 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu><10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
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Sender: usenet@xn.ll.mit.edu
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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Organization: M.I.T. Lincoln Lab - Group 43
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Lines: 49
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In-Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu's message of 26 Mar 91 04:26:30 GMT
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In article <10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu> arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee) writes:
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> Here's a project for you: Count how many people are associated with the JFK
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> assasination, either dead or alive.
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>
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> Now figure how many of those people should have been expected, according to
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> statistics, to die in the 20 year period referred to.
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>
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> Now compare to the size of your list.
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This is exactly the vacuous CIA response. Having typed in over 400 lines, if
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you're going to respond, the least you can do is read it and not just count the
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names. I'm sure I don't have to explain the difference between natural
|
|
causes and death by murder or suspected murder near the time of testimony.
|
|
What you should do is count how many people were in Jack Ruby's apartment
|
|
the day he killed Oswald and how many of them died within 1 to 2 years of
|
|
that day. The answer is all three of them.
|
|
|
|
The FBI interviewed 25,000 people, attempting to find everyone remotely
|
|
involved in the case. Many people were connected who were not a threat
|
|
to the conspirators, either because they lacked damaging information or
|
|
they kept their mouths shut. The thing to look at is how many people died
|
|
who had damaging information, how many were willing to share the information
|
|
with the public, and how many of them would you expect to die during a given
|
|
period. And, how many of those deaths would you expect to be by "natural
|
|
causes", accidents and murders, neglecting for the moment that the first
|
|
two causes can be faked. The number of people who were dangerous to the
|
|
alleged conspirators was certainly less than 25,000. The HSCA did not even
|
|
attempt this analysis, saying it was too difficult to come up with meaningful
|
|
numbers. They just accepted the line that 100 deaths out of 25,000 is not
|
|
high for the given period. But how many people knew about the Ruby-Oswald
|
|
connection, and spoke about it? About the same number who died. How many
|
|
people had foreknowledge of the assassination, communicated it and were to
|
|
answer questions about it -- people like Milteer and Cheramie? How many of
|
|
those people died suspiciously? Too many for me to not be *skeptical* about
|
|
the official version of events.
|
|
|
|
All I can say is that for a group that calls itself skeptical, there are
|
|
alot of people who seem to believe the Warren Commission's conclusions.
|
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That's no way to get a good reputation.
|
|
--
|
|
|
|
Steve Feinstein
|
|
|
|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|
|
| INTERNET: srf@juliet.ll.mit.edu |
|
|
| USmail: S. Feinstein, MIT Lincoln Lab, 29 Hartwell Ave., |
|
|
| Lexington, MA 02173 USA |
|
|
| VOICE: (617) 981-4017 |
|
|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|
|
|
|
|
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Article: 10026 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!uunet!europa.asd.contel.com!sura.net!haven!umd5!emanon.cs.jhu.edu!arromdee
|
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From: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
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|
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
|
Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
|
Message-ID: <10477@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
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Date: 26 Mar 91 18:26:47 GMT
|
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References: <SRF.91Mar26091329@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
|
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Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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Organization: Johns Hopkins University CS Dept.
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Lines: 56
|
|
|
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In article <SRF.91Mar26091329@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
|
|
>> Here's a project for you: Count how many people are associated with the JFK
|
|
>> assasination, either dead or alive.
|
|
>> Now figure how many of those people should have been expected, according to
|
|
>> statistics, to die in the 20 year period referred to.
|
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>> Now compare to the size of your list.
|
|
>This is exactly the vacuous CIA response. Having typed in over 400 lines, if
|
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>you're going to respond, the least you can do is read it and not just count the
|
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>names. I'm sure I don't have to explain the difference between natural
|
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>causes and death by murder or suspected murder near the time of testimony.
|
|
|
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You know what?
|
|
|
|
I never saw the CIA response.
|
|
|
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Which means that, according to you, I have found the exact same flaw in your
|
|
data that the CIA did, despite having no contact with them and not reading
|
|
what they said. It would be very curious were the CIA to make something up,
|
|
and then when I look for flaws in your argument I see the exact same flaw that
|
|
the CIA supposedly made up, even though I looked at it totally independently
|
|
of the CIA. Perhaps the flaw is really there, and that's why both I and the
|
|
CIA can find it without consulting each other?
|
|
|
|
How can you separate out "suspected murder" from natural causes? You can't
|
|
find statistics saying that in 25000 people so and so many die by murder, so
|
|
and so die by suspected murder, and so and so die by natural causes. If you
|
|
want to say that more people in this group were murdered than the statistics
|
|
predict, you don't get to count the "suspected" murders.
|
|
|
|
>... The number of people who were dangerous to the
|
|
>alleged conspirators was certainly less than 25,000. The HSCA did not even
|
|
>attempt this analysis, saying it was too difficult to come up with meaningful
|
|
>numbers. They just accepted the line that 100 deaths out of 25,000 is not
|
|
>high for the given period. But how many people knew about the Ruby-Oswald
|
|
>connection, and spoke about it? About the same number who died. How many
|
|
>people had foreknowledge of the assassination, communicated it and were to
|
|
>answer questions about it -- people like Milteer and Cheramie? How many of
|
|
>those people died suspiciously? Too many for me to not be *skeptical* about
|
|
>the official version of events.
|
|
|
|
Imagine that you are wrong. Oswald killed Kennedy. But also, I come along
|
|
and want to promote a conspiracy theory that is false. What can I do? Well,
|
|
I can look at those 25000 people and see that 100 of them died. Then, I can
|
|
decide, after the fact, that all 100 of those people must have been dangerous
|
|
to the conspirators. Then I can shout "look here, 100 of 100 potential
|
|
victims were killed! Must be a conspiracy!"
|
|
|
|
Do you really have any reason to consider those 100 people special _other_
|
|
than "I can pick people as 'special' based on their deaths. Then I can
|
|
conclude a conspiracy because the deaths were all of 'special' people"?
|
|
--
|
|
"If God can do anything, can he float a loan even he can't repay?"
|
|
--Blair Houghton, cross-posting
|
|
|
|
Kenneth Arromdee (UUCP: ....!jhunix!arromdee; BITNET: arromdee@jhuvm;
|
|
INTERNET: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu)
|
|
|
|
|
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Article: 10038 of sci.skeptic
|
|
Path: ns-mx!uunet!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!ncar!gatech!prism!gt6392b
|
|
From: gt6392b@prism.gatech.EDU (Mark D. Fisher)
|
|
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
|
Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
|
Message-ID: <25079@hydra.gatech.EDU>
|
|
Date: 27 Mar 91 15:52:53 GMT
|
|
References: <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> <10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
|
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
|
|
Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology
|
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Lines: 22
|
|
|
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In article <10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu> arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee) writes:
|
|
>Here's a project for you: Count how many people are associated with the JFK
|
|
>assasination, either dead or alive.
|
|
>
|
|
>Now figure how many of those people should have been expected, according to
|
|
>statistics, to die in the 20 year period referred to.
|
|
>
|
|
>Now compare to the size of your list.
|
|
|
|
That would not have any meaning unless the people he had listed included
|
|
everyone that was connected to the assasination, or a randomly pick sample of
|
|
that population. However these are people that were placed on the list because
|
|
they were dead. Suppose one million people were connected to the event in a
|
|
way at least as strong as the connections that the people on the list were and
|
|
that the list included every one of them that died. Then no matter how
|
|
unlikely it was for any individual person on that list to die when they did
|
|
statistics would indicate it to be safer to be connected to the incedent.
|
|
|
|
Therefore the list really doesn't prove anything one way or another.
|
|
|
|
As always,
|
|
Fish
|
|
|
|
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Article: 10039 of sci.skeptic
|
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Path: ns-mx!uunet!spool.mu.edu!samsung!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!rpi!batcomputer!cornell!uw-beaver!mit-eddie!xn.ll.mit.edu!xn!srf
|
|
From: srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein)
|
|
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
|
Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
|
Message-ID: <SRF.91Mar27102634@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
|
|
Date: 27 Mar 91 15:26:34 GMT
|
|
References: <SRF.91Mar26091329@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
|
|
<10477@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
|
|
Sender: usenet@xn.ll.mit.edu
|
|
Distribution: sci.skeptic
|
|
Organization: M.I.T. Lincoln Lab - Group 43
|
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Lines: 150
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Posted: Wed Mar 27 09:26:34 1991
|
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In-Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu's message of 26 Mar 91 18:26:47 GMT
|
|
|
|
In article <10477@emanon.cs.jhu.edu> arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee) writes:
|
|
>You know what?
|
|
>I never saw the CIA response.
|
|
>Which means that, according to you, I have found the exact same flaw in your
|
|
>data that the CIA did, despite having no contact with them and not reading
|
|
>what they said. It would be very curious were the CIA to make something up,
|
|
>and then when I look for flaws in your argument I see the exact same flaw that
|
|
>the CIA supposedly made up, even though I looked at it totally independently
|
|
>of the CIA. Perhaps the flaw is really there, and that's why both I and the
|
|
>CIA can find it without consulting each other?
|
|
>
|
|
>How can you separate out "suspected murder" from natural causes? You can't
|
|
>find statistics saying that in 25000 people so and so many die by murder, so
|
|
>and so die by suspected murder, and so and so die by natural causes. If you
|
|
>want to say that more people in this group were murdered than the statistics
|
|
>predict, you don't get to count the "suspected" murders.
|
|
>[...]
|
|
>Imagine that you are wrong. Oswald killed Kennedy. But also, I come along
|
|
>and want to promote a conspiracy theory that is false. What can I do? Well,
|
|
>I can look at those 25000 people and see that 100 of them died. Then, I can
|
|
>decide, after the fact, that all 100 of those people must have been dangerous
|
|
>to the conspirators. Then I can shout "look here, 100 of 100 potential
|
|
>victims were killed! Must be a conspiracy!"
|
|
>
|
|
>Do you really have any reason to consider those 100 people special _other_
|
|
>than "I can pick people as 'special' based on their deaths. Then I can
|
|
>conclude a conspiracy because the deaths were all of 'special' people"?
|
|
>
|
|
To repeat my earlier comments, the list does not prove that a
|
|
conspiracy exists/existed. What it proves is that there were
|
|
a number of deaths which are *suspicious* for some combination
|
|
of reasons, not all of which are elaborated on, obviously.
|
|
|
|
It is not necessary to prove anything more than that *one*
|
|
person was killed because of such reasons. Such proof
|
|
would imply that someone other than Oswald needed
|
|
to hide information to such a degree that they would
|
|
commit murder. Now, for argument's sake, suppose we
|
|
had such proof, yet in 28 years since the assassination,
|
|
this was the only person connected with the case to
|
|
die. Does that prove there was no conspiracy? Of course
|
|
not, because we know a priori that an assassination-
|
|
related murder occurred (note that this is not a
|
|
"suspicious" death, but a death definitely linked to
|
|
the case).
|
|
|
|
What is actually contained in this list? There is no
|
|
proof that a single person actually was killed for what
|
|
they knew about the assassination. However, there are
|
|
*individual* cases which should not be buried in
|
|
aggregate statistical arguments -- use aggregate statistics
|
|
when you have no more information than numbers of people,
|
|
or when you goal is to obfuscate the truth, which, hopefully,
|
|
in this case is not true. This is the point of providing the
|
|
list. The flaw in the presentation is that it's hard to flush
|
|
out so many details. But let's look at a couple.
|
|
|
|
Joseph Milteer: This is a man who was *tape recorded* by
|
|
a police informant on 11/6/63 describing the assassination
|
|
plot against Kennedy in Miami in detail (that he would be
|
|
hit from an office building with a high-powered rifle and
|
|
that someone would be picked up afterwards to "throw the
|
|
public off"). When the Miami motorcade was canceled, he
|
|
later called the same informant from Dallas on 11/22/63
|
|
saying that Kennedy would be hit. The tape was turned
|
|
over to Miami police who forwarded it to the FBI. The
|
|
Secret Service in Dallas apparently never got wind of
|
|
this information. On 11/27/63, Milteer denied making the
|
|
remarks attributed to him when questioned by the FBI. He was
|
|
called in for more questioning, but died before he could
|
|
make it in. The cause of death was "burns received from
|
|
a heater explosion in his vacation cabin". Milteer was
|
|
known to be a right-wing extremist with connections to
|
|
anti-Castro Cubans.
|
|
|
|
You cannot tell me that this is not suspicious. Of course,
|
|
it's not *proof*, but if we were to find several "equally
|
|
suspicious" cases, we would certainly want to look into
|
|
them further. Let's take another case.
|
|
|
|
Dorothy Kilgallen: One of the only reporters to interview
|
|
Jack Ruby during his trial, claimed to be carrying a message
|
|
to Ruby from a mutual friend. Ruby and Kilgallen met
|
|
privately for eight minutes behind the judge's bench without
|
|
the four sheriff's deputies who always accompanied him.
|
|
This nationally syndicated columnist did not write about
|
|
this meeting. Her biographer suggested that "either a) she
|
|
was saving the material for her book "Murder One", b) he
|
|
furnished her with a lead which she was pursuing, c) that
|
|
he exacted a promise of confidentiality from her, or
|
|
d) that she was acting merely as a courier. Each
|
|
possibility puts her in the thick of things."
|
|
Another possible source of information for Kilgallen was her
|
|
drinking friend, Joan Crawford, who was a principal owner of
|
|
Pepsi-Cola, for whom Richard Nixon was an attorney. Both
|
|
Nixon and Crawford were in Dallas during the assassination
|
|
and there is information which opens the possibility that
|
|
Nixon and Crawford were privy to some information. Among
|
|
Nixon's lifelong connections to the mob is Jack Ruby himself
|
|
who used to work for Nixon. Or did you believe that Nixon
|
|
"was no crook"?
|
|
Back to Kilgallen, she told attorney Mark Lane, "They've
|
|
killed the President, the government is not prepared to tell
|
|
us the truth..." and that she planned to "break the case".
|
|
She told others, "this *has* to be a conspiracy! The Warren
|
|
Commission is laughable...I'm going to break the real story
|
|
and have the biggest scoop of the century". Her last
|
|
column appeared on 9/3/65 in which she wrote, "this story
|
|
isn't going to die as long as there's a real reporter
|
|
alive -- and there are alot of them." Kilgallen was found
|
|
dead in her home on 11/8/65, originally called a heart
|
|
attack, then changed to a drug and alcohol overdose,
|
|
circumstances undetermined. Her biographer wrote
|
|
|
|
After three years of investigating Dorothy's
|
|
death, it is clear to me that she did not die
|
|
accidentally and that a network of varied activies,
|
|
impelled by disparate purposes, conspired effectively
|
|
to obfuscate the truth.
|
|
|
|
Dorothy's close friend, Mrs. Earl Smith, was thought to
|
|
have kept Kilgallen's notes. Smith died two days after
|
|
Kilgallen, cause of death unknown. No notes were ever
|
|
found.
|
|
|
|
Again, you will never convince me that this is not
|
|
suspicious. I could go on.
|
|
|
|
As long as there are strong suggestions of multiple
|
|
assassination-related deaths, listing those deaths
|
|
supports, but in no way proves, that a conspiracy
|
|
took place. That is the purpose of the list that
|
|
I posted.
|
|
|
|
The fact that you and the CIA came up with the same
|
|
lame reasoning to write off all of these cases, only
|
|
proves that people independently will play on the
|
|
same misconceptions in the same way, either honestly
|
|
or dishonestly, to further their respective causes.
|
|
|
|
--
|
|
|
|
Steve Feinstein
|
|
|
|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|
|
| INTERNET: srf@juliet.ll.mit.edu |
|
|
| USmail: S. Feinstein, MIT Lincoln Lab, 29 Hartwell Ave., |
|
|
| Lexington, MA 02173 USA |
|
|
| VOICE: (617) 981-4017 |
|
|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|
|
|
|
|
|
Article: 10042 of sci.skeptic
|
|
Path: ns-mx!uunet!europa.asd.contel.com!sura.net!haven!umd5!emanon.cs.jhu.edu!arromdee
|
|
From: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
|
|
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
|
Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
|
Message-ID: <10479@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
|
|
Date: 27 Mar 91 19:47:46 GMT
|
|
References: <SRF.91Mar27102634@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
|
|
Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
|
|
Distribution: sci.skeptic
|
|
Organization: Johns Hopkins University CS Dept.
|
|
Lines: 28
|
|
|
|
In article <SRF.91Mar27102634@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
|
|
>As long as there are strong suggestions of multiple
|
|
>assassination-related deaths, listing those deaths
|
|
>supports, but in no way proves, that a conspiracy
|
|
>took place. That is the purpose of the list that
|
|
>I posted.
|
|
|
|
If you have one death without proof of assassination, and then you find another
|
|
death without proof of assassination, what you now have is two deaths without
|
|
proof of assassination.
|
|
|
|
Pointing to "suspiciousness" as evidence has the same problem as pointing to
|
|
deaths as evidence: in 25000 people, just like you could expect a certain
|
|
number of deaths, you could expect a number of deaths that occur under unusual
|
|
circumstances. You can then select those people for special consideration and
|
|
say "look how suspicious these are" when in a group of that size you should
|
|
really expect events that appear suspicious but have nothing behind them.
|
|
|
|
(The fallacy often appears in reference to more explicitly-stated statistics.
|
|
If the odds are 100 to 1 against something being caused by chance, it could
|
|
still very well be chance if you had to look through a hundred things to find
|
|
it.)
|
|
--
|
|
"If God can do anything, can he float a loan even he can't repay?"
|
|
--Blair Houghton, cross-posting
|
|
|
|
Kenneth Arromdee (UUCP: ....!jhunix!arromdee; BITNET: arromdee@jhuvm;
|
|
INTERNET: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Article: 10048 of sci.skeptic
|
|
Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!maverick.ksu.ksu.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!rpi!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!psych.toronto.edu!daniel
|
|
From: daniel@psych.toronto.edu (Daniel Read)
|
|
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
|
Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
|
Message-ID: <1991Mar28.000446.10856@psych.toronto.edu>
|
|
Date: 28 Mar 91 00:04:46 GMT
|
|
References: <SRF.91Mar27102634@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> <10479@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
|
|
Distribution: sci.skeptic
|
|
Organization: Department of Psychology, University of Toronto
|
|
Lines: 26
|
|
|
|
In article <10479@emanon.cs.jhu.edu> arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee) writes:
|
|
>
|
|
>If you have one death without proof of assassination, and then you find another
|
|
>death without proof of assassination, what you now have is two deaths without
|
|
>proof of assassination.
|
|
>
|
|
>Pointing to "suspiciousness" as evidence has the same problem as pointing to
|
|
>deaths as evidence: in 25000 people, just like you could expect a certain
|
|
>number of deaths, you could expect a number of deaths that occur under unusual
|
|
>circumstances. You can then select those people for special consideration and
|
|
>say "look how suspicious these are" when in a group of that size you should
|
|
>really expect events that appear suspicious but have nothing behind them.
|
|
>
|
|
>(The fallacy often appears in reference to more explicitly-stated statistics.
|
|
>If the odds are 100 to 1 against something being caused by chance, it could
|
|
>still very well be chance if you had to look through a hundred things to find
|
|
>it.)
|
|
>--
|
|
|
|
This is not a fallacy. You are arguing that the original poster has
|
|
insufficient data to prove their claim. Granted, this is true.
|
|
You, however, have no data and an alternative hypothesis. I think
|
|
you should get the data to refute your opponent and stop doing
|
|
thought experiments.
|
|
|
|
daniel
|
|
|
|
|
|
Article: 10051 of sci.skeptic
|
|
Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!ceres.physics.uiowa.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!
|
|
decwrl!mcnc!uvaarpa!haven!umd5!emanon.cs.jhu.edu!arromdee
|
|
From: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
|
|
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
|
Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
|
Message-ID: <10484@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
|
|
Date: 28 Mar 91 03:05:29 GMT
|
|
References: <1991Mar28.000446.10856@psych.toronto.edu>
|
|
Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
|
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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In article <1991Mar28.000446.10856@psych.toronto.edu> daniel@psych.toronto.edu (Daniel Read) writes:
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>>(The fallacy often appears in reference to more explicitly-stated statistics.
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>>If the odds are 100 to 1 against something being caused by chance, it could
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>>still very well be chance if you had to look through a hundred things to find
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>>it.)
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>This is not a fallacy. You are arguing that the original poster has
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>insufficient data to prove their claim. Granted, this is true.
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>You, however, have no data and an alternative hypothesis. I think
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>you should get the data to refute your opponent and stop doing
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>thought experiments.
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I gave my hypothesis. It's the null hypothesis.
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If the other poster wishes to make a claim, he should prove it. If he cannot
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prove it (and you admit he can't), I have no obligation to _dis_prove it in
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order to object to it.
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--
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"If God can do anything, can he float a loan even he can't repay?"
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--Blair Houghton, cross-posting
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Kenneth Arromdee (UUCP: ....!jhunix!arromdee; BITNET: arromdee@jhuvm;
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INTERNET: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu)
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Article: 10056 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!maverick.ksu.ksu.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!ncar!asuvax!ukma!usenet.ins.cwru.edu!abvax!iccgcc!kambic
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From: kambic@iccgcc.decnet.ab.com
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <4010.27f1d606@iccgcc.decnet.ab.com>
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Date: 28 Mar 91 16:39:50 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> <10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu> <SRF.91Mar26091329@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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In article <SRF.91Mar26091329@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>, srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
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>> Now figure how many of those people should have been expected, according to
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>> statistics, to die in the 20 year period referred to.
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>>
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> The FBI interviewed 25,000 people, attempting to find everyone remotely
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> involved in the case. Many people were connected who were not a threat
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> to the conspirators, either because they lacked damaging information or
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> they kept their mouths shut. The thing to look at is how many people died
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> who had damaging information, how many were willing to share the information
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> with the public, and how many of them would you expect to die during a given
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> period. And, how many of those deaths would you expect to be by "natural
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> causes", accidents and murders, neglecting for the moment that the first
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> two causes can be faked.
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The list is interesting. I think though that it points more to the convoluted
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theory required to support the conspiracy. One of the implications of this
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theory is that everything has gone *exactly* right for the alleged conspiracy
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over the years, while all attempts to investigate it have been sidetracked, or
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eliminated. What is the size of the conspiracy required to interview 25K
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people, filter all their reports, exclude the "nuts" and only eliminate only
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those right ones, while keeping all of the "good guys" in the police, FBI,
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Congress, and Warren commission at bay and in the dark, unless all of those
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groups were in on it from the beginning completely.
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Look - thanks for actually posting the data - it sure indicates you're serious,
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but right now....I are still skeptical. Why? See above. Forgot Alvarez
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again. After Easter.
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GXKambic
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standard disclaimer
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> those people died suspiciously? Too many for me to not be *skeptical* about
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> the official version of events.
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>
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Article: 10057 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!maverick.ksu.ksu.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!wuarchive!mit-eddie!xn.ll.mit.edu!xn!srf
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From: srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <SRF.91Mar28125044@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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Date: 28 Mar 91 18:50:44 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar27102634@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu><10479@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
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Organization: M.I.T. Lincoln Lab - Group 43
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In-Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu's message of 27 Mar 91 19:47:46 GMT
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>If you have one death without proof of assassination,and then you find another
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>death without proof of assassination, what you now have is two deaths without
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>proof of assassination.
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If you have one death that is linked in numerous ways to the assassination,
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you can assign a probability that that death is related (to the assassination).
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If you have two such deaths, the probability that either or both were related
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is higher than the probability of each being related.
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>
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>Pointing to "suspiciousness" as evidence has the same problem as pointing to
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>deaths as evidence: in 25000 people, just like you could expect a certain
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>number of deaths, you could expect a number of deaths that occur under unusual
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>circumstances. You can then select those people for special consideration and
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>say "look how suspicious these are" when in a group of that size you should
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>really expect events that appear suspicious but have nothing behind them.
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>
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The selection of these people is hardly arbitrary. If other people who didn't
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die lived to provide as damaging information as those who did die, we'd
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have alot of evidence that was damaging to somebody. But we don't have that
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because they were silenced. Let me elaborate.
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Of the 25000, let's categorize as follows:
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1. People who had no information to contradict official version.
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2. People who had information to contradict official version.
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a. those who were blunted, i.e. ignored or tricked.
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b. those who changed their story.
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c. those who kept their story but didn't have
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threatening info to would-be conspirators.
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d. those who kept their story which was damaging to would-be
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conspirators.
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i. those who had talked, were talking, or were about to talk.
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ii. those who kept their mouths shut.
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This is simplistic, but I can still make my point. Now, we have alot of
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information available to suggest what kind of breakdown would be reasonable
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as far as the number of people in each category. For example, most people in
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Dealey Plaza who had contradictory testimony contradicted it by saying they
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were sure that shots were fired from the Grassy Knoll or from behind the
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picket fence, etc. These kinds of contradictions were easily dealt with by
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the Warren Commission, and although they were never fully squashed, they're
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not considered conclusive. Even if they were, they wouldn't threaten anyone
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enough to cause a murder, since they didn't identify any people who might
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have been involved. Other kinds of contradictory stories were dealt with
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similarly, as documentation shows, for example, the woman who had to wait in
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traffic behind a van under the Triple Underpass while a man took a long
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brown bag possibly with a rifle in it and headed toward the Grassy Knoll.
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(11:30am 11/22/63). Many such stories were left out of the report, or
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the witnesses were not even called. There is ample evidence to suggest
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that many people were convinced to change their story. So we can say that
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categories 1 and 2a-c are sizeable. 2d is made up of people who have
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threatening information to conspirators if they exist. We are assuming
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for the moment that they do. To have threatening information means that
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personal relationships are understood and verified by the witness which
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connect people, with critical knowledge, or actions connected with the
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assassination. For example, a waitress who can verify or at least
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corroborate a story that shows that Ruby and Oswald knew each other well
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before the assassination. If many pieces of info of this kind are
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found, the situation for conspirators is hurt. What kind of people
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would have such information? Not the average guy or gal in Dealey Plaza
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on his/her lunch break. These would be people who would have had prior
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contact with conspirators in some way. People who found themselves on
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the periphery of the plot somehow. For example, an FBI official who
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smells a rat, a reporter who has the right connections, a man who can
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verify that Oswald was not where he was said to be at such and such time,
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etc. Knowing how gangland business happens, threats often preceed
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action. Therefore we can also say that of the people in 2d, many would
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have good reason to not talk. "JFK is not coming back from the dead, why
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should I join him?"
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Let's assume that given a conspiracy, the conspirators would only murder
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people in the 2.d.ii. category. Let's also assume that when someone
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known to have info mysteriously dies, others who know of the
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circumstances are less likely to talk. We know that rumors were indeed
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rampant about these deaths. We also know of individual cases like Ruby's
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waitress who was in fact quite bold, was killed, and whose two
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waitress friends respectively disappeared and refused to utter a syllable,
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understandably.
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Now regardless of the exact numbers we assign to each category, and
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I can assure you that 2.d.ii. is small compared to the total, how
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could we decide on the likelihood that a conspiracy took place?
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We have to try to isolate the set of data which would be affected by
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the presence of a conspiracy or lack thereof. We cannot know who
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is in 2.d.i. However, we can estimate who is in 2.d.ii. by
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realizing that a relationship exists between those in 2.d.ii. and
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those whose stories we find out about. By definition of "telling
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a story" we can figure that someone is listening. Given that several
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researchers have spent years digging up such stories and investigating
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these deaths, we can figure that almost all of these stories have
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been told in at least partial detail. The question then becomes
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how to estimate the number of people in 2.d.ii with a given level
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of confidence given a conspiracy. Then, having established the
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relevant population, find the expected number of deaths for such a group
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given no conspiracy and hence no JFK related deaths, and compare it to
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the actual number of deaths for this group.
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I have not done this analysis, nor am I aware of anyone doing such
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an analysis. But let's assume that of 25000, 95% fall into categories
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1, 2a, 2b, and 2c, leaving 5% in 2d. We assume that most people are
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smart enough not to make trouble for themselves and don't talk, esp.
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after a threat or rumor. However, let's say that 1% of people in
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2d go the dumb route and try to cross powerful people who are scared
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for their own lives. Then of the 25000, we are down to 125 who need
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to be dealt with. Let's assume that the conspirators are smart, don't
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want to have to kill 125 people and make things look too suspicious,
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so they kill critical ones, threaten the others, kill some more who
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haven't stopped talking, threaten some more, etc. Perhaps 50
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out of the total had to be killed. This is exactly the kind of
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scenario described in the list. How do you tell this scenario from
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the null hypothesis? By scrutinizing the individual cases to ascertain
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who was causing trouble for would-be conspirators, and how many of them
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got killed or shut up in other ways. SINCE ALL OR MOST OF THOSE KNOWN
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TO BE TROUBLE WERE SILENCED, WE CAN ASSUME THAT IN THAT POPULATION,
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THEY WOULDN'T HAVE NORMALLY ALL DIED. Hence we are "suspicious".
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What I have just postulated is that
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1. The use of a complete population, say 25000, to base an analysis
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is misguided since the majority of these people would not be affected
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either way by the proof or disproof of the hypothesis under discussion.
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2. We know which segment of the population to focus on; the task is
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determine the likelihood that they were affected.
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3. That group of people died in high numbers because we have not heard
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of much seriously damaging testimony from people who survived and
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continued to provide substantiation to investigation authorities.
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The other way of looking at this is to note the following.
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If one certain JFK-related death equals conspiracy, then if we assign a .5
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probability that each of three deaths are JFK-related, the probability that
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a JFK-related death occurred, i.e. that at least one of 3 was JFK-related,
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is Pconsp=(2^3-1)/(2^3) = 0.875. Now, our dispute is over how to
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pick our sample space. If the probability that Milteer was killed because of
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what he said and was about to say is accepted as high, say .7, than there
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is nothing wrong with saying that there is a .7 probability or better that
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*anyone* was killed for said reason. You could assign a 0 probability to
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the other 24,999 people, and Pconsp would still be .7.
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Finding the most likely cases to be JFK-related in no way invalidates my
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claim that there are such cases! Nor is it diminished in importance by
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the fact that there were other people who died in unrelated ways.
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You argue that there would have been suspicious deaths anyway, but you
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disregard individual cases. You are concocting arguments which ignore reams
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of information gathered over a number of years by many people, all for
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the purpose of supporting your gut feeling. There are other very supicious
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facts and behavior that add to the total suspicion and go beyond a first course
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in probability.
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--
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Steve Feinstein
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+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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| INTERNET: srf@juliet.ll.mit.edu |
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| USmail: S. Feinstein, MIT Lincoln Lab, 29 Hartwell Ave., |
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| Lexington, MA 02173 USA |
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| VOICE: (617) 981-4017 |
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+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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Article: 10062 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!ceres.physics.uiowa.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!wuarchive!udel!haven!umd5!emanon.cs.jhu.edu!arromdee
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From: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <10486@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
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Date: 28 Mar 91 19:52:55 GMT
|
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References: <SRF.91Mar28125044@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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Reply-To: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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Organization: Johns Hopkins University CS Dept.
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Lines: 96
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In article <SRF.91Mar28125044@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
|
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[Lots of stuff, most of which is true only under the assumption that the
|
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conspiracy exists, and which therefore cannot be used as proof _for_ the
|
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conspiracy.]
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|
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>>If you have one death without proof of assassination,and then you find another
|
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>>death without proof of assassination, what you now have is two deaths without
|
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>>proof of assassination.
|
|
>If you have one death that is linked in numerous ways to the assassination,
|
|
>you can assign a probability that that death is related (to the assassination).
|
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>If you have two such deaths, the probability that either or both were related
|
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>is higher than the probability of each being related.
|
|
|
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This assumes independence of events.
|
|
|
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If the events were not independent--if, for instance, you found one such event
|
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by looking for the most suspicious handful from 25000 (or even 100) cases and
|
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found the second event the same way--this does not apply.
|
|
|
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"Without proof" means exactly that--it means you can't rule out some other
|
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explanations, and those other explanations may apply to both events in a way
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which prevents just combining probabilities like you wish to.
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|
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>>Pointing to "suspiciousness" as evidence has the same problem as pointing to
|
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>>deaths as evidence: in 25000 people, just like you could expect a certain
|
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>>number of deaths, you could expect a number of deaths that occur under unusual
|
|
>>circumstances. You can then select those people for special consideration and
|
|
>>say "look how suspicious these are" when in a group of that size you should
|
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>>really expect events that appear suspicious but have nothing behind them.
|
|
>The selection of these people is hardly arbitrary. If other people who didn't
|
|
>die lived to provide as damaging information as those who did die, we'd
|
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>have alot of evidence that was damaging to somebody. ...
|
|
|
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What do you mean "provide as damaging information as those who did die"? You
|
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mean that the people who died first provided damaging information? If you
|
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meant that, surely you would have _shown_ us some of the information that
|
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those people provided before they died.
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No, what you mean is that these people did not provide any information, but
|
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_if_ they had lived, they would have provided it. That's different.
|
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Saying that someone "would have provided damaging information", and therefore
|
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that there death is suspicious, is no better than just saying that their
|
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death was suspicious; you can always point to _someone_ and say that they
|
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_could_ have provided damaging information, since you have 100 people from
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whom to choose that "someone" from.
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|
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>... How do you tell this scenario from
|
|
>the null hypothesis? By scrutinizing the individual cases to ascertain
|
|
>who was causing trouble for would-be conspirators, and how many of them
|
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>got killed or shut up in other ways. SINCE ALL OR MOST OF THOSE KNOWN
|
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>TO BE TROUBLE WERE SILENCED, WE CAN ASSUME THAT IN THAT POPULATION,
|
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>THEY WOULDN'T HAVE NORMALLY ALL DIED. Hence we are "suspicious".
|
|
|
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"Known to be trouble" is not well-defined. If there are 100 people who died,
|
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you can always define "known to be trouble", after the fact, as just happening
|
|
to be that 100 people, and then the fact that all the deaths were of potential
|
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troublemakers can be used to "prove" your case.
|
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If you have some way to determine that a person is a potential troublemaker
|
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independent of the fact that they died, you can then legitimately say that
|
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more troublemakers died than expected. You haven't done this, though.
|
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>1. The use of a complete population, say 25000, to base an analysis
|
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>is misguided since the majority of these people would not be affected
|
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>either way by the proof or disproof of the hypothesis under discussion.
|
|
|
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Yes, they would. If the "hypothesis" is that you looked through the
|
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cases and did a pick-and-choose to find the most suspicious looking cases,
|
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the size of the complete population matters because the larger it is, the
|
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more "suspicious" a case you could find this way.
|
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>2. We know which segment of the population to focus on; the task is
|
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>determine the likelihood that they were affected.
|
|
|
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No, we do not know which segment.
|
|
|
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>3. That group of people died in high numbers because we have not heard
|
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>of much seriously damaging testimony from people who survived and
|
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>continued to provide substantiation to investigation authorities.
|
|
|
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It seems to be a persistent Usenet trait for people to join two otherwise
|
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unrelated sentence by the word "because".
|
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Not hearing damaging testimony from survivors proves nothing. Sure, if
|
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people who could reveal a conspiracy all got killed, the survivors would
|
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not give damaging testimony. But if there was no conspiracy, the survivors
|
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_also_ would not give damaging testimony. In either case there is no
|
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damaging testimony, and thus the lack of damaging testimony does not
|
|
distinguish between them.
|
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--
|
|
"If God can do anything, can he float a loan even he can't repay?"
|
|
--Blair Houghton, cross-posting
|
|
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|
Kenneth Arromdee (UUCP: ....!jhunix!arromdee; BITNET: arromdee@jhuvm;
|
|
INTERNET: arromdee@cs.jhu.edu)
|
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Article: 10063 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!ceres.physics.uiowa.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!ncar!gatech!prism!ejaska
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From: ejaska@msd.gatech.edu (Esko A. Jaska)
|
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
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Message-ID: <25163@hydra.gatech.EDU>
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Date: 28 Mar 91 20:52:12 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar28125044@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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Sender: news@prism.gatech.EDU
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology
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Lines: 12
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In <SRF.91Mar28125044@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
|
|
|
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>If you have one death that is linked in numerous ways to the assassination,
|
|
>you can assign a probability that that death is related (to the assassination).
|
|
>If you have two such deaths, the probability that either or both were related
|
|
>is higher than the probability of each being related.
|
|
|
|
If several people saw a co-worker in your office, and later you found a book
|
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on the floor, you can assign a probability of that person having thrown the
|
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book on the floor. But, if the whole bookcase is dumped you can be absolutely
|
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certain that particular person is guilty.
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--
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Article: 10064 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!ceres.physics.uiowa.edu!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!ncar!gatech!prism!ejaska
|
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From: ejaska@msd.gatech.edu (Esko A. Jaska)
|
|
Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
|
|
Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
|
|
Message-ID: <25168@hydra.gatech.EDU>
|
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Date: 28 Mar 91 21:08:23 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar26091329@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> <10477@emanon.cs.jhu.edu> <SRF.91Mar27102634@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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In article <SRF.91Mar27102634@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
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>To repeat my earlier comments, the list does not prove that a
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>conspiracy exists/existed. What it proves is that there were
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>a number of deaths which are *suspicious* for some combination
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>of reasons, not all of which are elaborated on, obviously.
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I would consider it suspicious if the people on the list died of old age or
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some such natural causes. After all, what kind of people were associated
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with the assassination: reporters, police, dancers, mobsters, etc. None of
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these professionals were old enough to be retired, and thus not very likely
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to die of old age. When younger people die, it's usually heart attacks, cancer,
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murder, or some violent acccient.
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--
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Article: 10066 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!iowasp.physics.uiowa.edu!maverick.ksu.ksu.edu!kuhub.cc.ukans.edu!wuarchive!sdd.hp.com!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!decwrl!mcnc!taco!ccvr1!hes
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From: hes@ccvr1.ncsu.edu (Henry E. Schaffer)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <1991Mar28.230205.25830@ncsu.edu>
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Date: 28 Mar 91 23:02:05 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar28125044@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> <25163@hydra.gatech.EDU>
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Sender: news@ncsu.edu (USENET News System)
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Reply-To: hes@ccvr1.ncsu.edu (Henry E. Schaffer)
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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In article <25163@hydra.gatech.EDU> ejaska@msd.gatech.edu (Esko A. Jaska) writes:
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>In <SRF.91Mar28125044@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu> ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
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>
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>>If you have one death that is linked in numerous ways to the assassination,
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>>you can assign a probability that that death is related (to the assassination).
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Of course you can "assign" a probability, but what is the basis for
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the value assigned?
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--henry schaffer
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Article: 10084 of sci.skeptic
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Path: ns-mx!uunet!news-server.csri.toronto.edu!utgpu!utorvm!ryerson!syst8103
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From: SYST8103@Ryerson.CA (Ron Wigmore)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: Re: JFK: List of Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <91088.093913SYST8103@Ryerson.CA>
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Date: 29 Mar 91 14:39:13 GMT
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References: <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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<10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>
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In article <10474@emanon.cs.jhu.edu>, arromdee@cs.jhu.edu (Kenneth Arromdee)
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says:
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>In article <SRF.91Mar25191057@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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>srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein) writes:
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>> Here is the much requested list of people associated with the JFK
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>>assassination whose deaths are called convenient. Bear in mind that
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>
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>Here's a project for you: Count how many people are associated with the JFK
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>assasination, either dead or alive.
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Here's an even bigger project for Steve: Let's assume Ken is a big time
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crime and drug lord. Now, let's also assume Steve is running around
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saying that Ken had JFK killed, even though Ken is innocent. Me, I say
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Ken thinks for about 1.3 seconds and concludes "Gee, if Steve keeps
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saying these things about me, there going to be even MORE cops (and FBI
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and CIA) messing around, digging into my *illegal* operations. Time for
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Steve to have a 'mysterious' death".
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The result: We have a death directly related to the JFK assassination
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at the same time it had nothing to do with the assassination. Part of a
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conspiracy? No! Just Ken, the evil crime/drug lord he is (:-)), doing
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what he has to to protect his operations, independent of JFK's assassination.
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>Now figure how many of those people should have been expected, according to
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>statistics, to die in the 20 year period referred to.
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You also need to make sure you consider that many of those involved were
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people involved in high-risk (undercover cops, etc.) jobs.
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>Now compare to the size of your list.
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But not before we consider why it is that the FBI/CIA have not yet
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killed off Steve, and the others who compiled these 'statistics'.
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Ron,,,
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=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
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When contemplating my opinions above, remember, *I* work for the government!
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Article: 10075 of sci.skeptic
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From: srf@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu ( Steve Feinstein)
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Newsgroups: sci.skeptic
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Subject: JFK Convenient Deaths
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Message-ID: <SRF.91Mar29105150@claudius.juliet.ll.mit.edu>
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Date: 29 Mar 91 16:51:50 GMT
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Sender: usenet@xn.ll.mit.edu
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Distribution: sci.skeptic
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Organization: M.I.T. Lincoln Lab - Group 43
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Lines: 77
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I think we can agree on the following: A number of suspicious deaths occurred
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of people who, if there was a conspiracy, were in the thick of it. There is
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no absolute proof of conspiracy, yet there are a plethora of details, not
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nearly all of which I have mentioned, which are disturbing, but in no way
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conclusive. Those questions should have been investigated by the HSCA when
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the issued came to them. They chose not to investigate them.
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Now, I'm not going to relate here the incredible story of the HSCA. Suffice
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it to say that the first committee head was a go-getter who hungered for
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getting to the bottom of things. Plenty of money was allocated for the task,
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but after revealing the scope of his plans, he was removed and the committee
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budget drastically reduced. The whole thing was a fisco considered by most
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people who look at the story to be very strange. My point is this:
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the deaths are suspicious enough to warrant serious investigation and somebody
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or bodies in our government shut the committee's life support system off
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when it looked like they might actually accomplish something. Why?
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Like I've said, it's not one thing. It's not *a* list of deaths, set of
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connections, or some contraditory accounts. It's many things put together
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that you can't put numbers on.
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Oswald is picked up and he immediately tells police he's been manipulated into
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being a patsy. Ruby shoots Oswald, begs the police and Warren Commission for
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protection and to question him about the conspiracy he hints at, they refuse,
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Ruby, due for further testimony later on mysteriously dies in prison. Ruby's
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waitresses are terrorized and killed after speaking out about Ruby and Oswald
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being together several times in the month prior to the assassination. The
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reporter who gets the exclusive interview with Ruby and says she's going to
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break the big story of the century dies after saying this, her best friend
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who probably had her notes dies two days later. Ruby tried to talk, the
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Warren Commission refused to listen. They needed a nice tidy story so they
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made it up. It's laughable.
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Now think about it. If proof of a crime were a criterion for doing a
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thorough investigation, nothing would ever get investigated. Not only
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were these deaths never investigated by our government, investigations
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like the Garrison trial were thwarted. My disputatious friends, something
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is awry here, and you cannot use thought games to deny it. Jack Ruby is
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not being discussed arbitrarily. He killed the main suspect. He worked
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for the Chicago mob who hated Kennedy. He knew Oswald before hand. He
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was an FBI informant. He was in debt to the mob. If there was ever a line
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of questioning for the commission, it was with Ruby. But they ignored him.
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And Jack Ruby died of lung cancer due to stomach cancer cells in his lungs.
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He had no stomach cancer. You have to go beyond labels like suspicious and
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look at the details.
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You say it's incredible that so many organizations had elements involved?
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When we talk about elements in the CIA and FBI, LBJ, anti-Castro Cubans,
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and certain oilmen like the Hunts, we're talking about people who have already
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had years of working together. LBJ was basically a mobster himself. He
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dealt with mobsters, took large sums of money from them, killed anti-mob
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legislation, and allegedly ordered at least one killing himself. The mob
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and CIA had already been collaborating for years on assassination plots.
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The anti-Castro Cubans were involved in these plots. And all of these people
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hated Kennedy and felt betrayed by him, either because of the Bay of Pigs,
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the deportation of Carlos Marcello, the war against Jimmy Hoffa and other
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mobsters, the oil depletion tax which would have killed huge oil comany
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profits, or some combination of reasons. In a huge network of people, Kennedy
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made bitter enemies of all of them.
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Motives. Means. Opportunity. All three elements were there for a conspiracy.
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Cover-ups. Destruction of evidence. Fabrication of evidence. Intimidation
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of witnesses. Convenient deaths. Suspicious behavior...
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Are you really telling me you don't smell a rat? I do.
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--
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Steve Feinstein
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+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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| INTERNET: srf@juliet.ll.mit.edu |
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| USmail: S. Feinstein, MIT Lincoln Lab, 29 Hartwell Ave., |
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| Lexington, MA 02173 USA |
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| VOICE: (617) 981-4017 |
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+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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Article 1217 of alt.conspiracy:
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Path: ns-mx!uunet!samsung!usc!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!jarthur!uci-ics!ucla-cs!pierce
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From: pierce@florian.cs.ucla.edu
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Newsgroups: alt.conspiracy
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Subject: 1977 FBI kill-off?
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Message-ID: <33363@shemp.CS.UCLA.EDU>
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Date: 22 Mar 90 11:18:26 GMT
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Sender: news@CS.UCLA.EDU
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Reply-To: pierce@CS.UCLA.EDU (Brad Pierce)
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Distribution: alt
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Organization: UCLA Computer Science
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Lines: 33
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According to _Crossfire: The Plot that Killed Kennedy_ by Jim Marrs, (1989,
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Carroll & Graf Publishers, New York) pp. 564-565 here are six top FBI
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officials that died shortly before they were scheduled to testify before the
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House Select Committee on Assassinations in 1977.
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6/77 Louis Nicholas - Heart attack. Former number-three man in FBI, worked
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on JFK case. [or Louis Nichols?] Hoover's liaison to
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Warren Commission.
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8/77 Alan Belmont - "Long illness". FBI official that testified to Warren
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Commission. Special assistant to Hoover.
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8/77 James Cadigan - Fall in home. FBI document expert that testified to
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Warren Commission.
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10/77 Donald Kaylor - Heart attack. FBI fingerprint chemist. Examined
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prints from assassination scene.
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10/77 J.M.English - Heart attack. Former head of FBI Forensic Sciences
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Laboratory. Headed lab that tested Oswald's alleged
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rifle and pistol.
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11/77 William Sullivan - Hunting accident. Former number-three man in FBI,
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headed Division 5, counterespionage and domestic
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intelligence.
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Sullivan was shot after attending a preliminary meeting with
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investigators. He was shot near his home by a man that claimed to
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have mistaken him for a deer. The man was charged with a misdemeanor
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and released without further investigation.
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-- Brad
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Article 1223 of alt.conspiracy:
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Path: ns-mx!uunet!sco!hiramc
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From: hiramc@sco.COM (Hiram Clawson)
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Newsgroups: alt.conspiracy
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Subject: Re: 1977 FBI kill-off?
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Message-ID: <5347@scolex.sco.COM>
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Date: 23 Mar 90 16:23:48 GMT
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References: <33363@shemp.CS.UCLA.EDU>
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Reply-To: hiramc@sco.COM (Hiram Clawson)
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Distribution: alt
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Organization: The Santa Cruz Operation, Inc.
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Lines: 35
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In article <33363@shemp.CS.UCLA.EDU> pierce@CS.UCLA.EDU (Brad Pierce) writes:
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>
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>According to _Crossfire: The Plot that Killed Kennedy_ by Jim Marrs, (1989,
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>Carroll & Graf Publishers, New York) pp. 564-565 here are six top FBI
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>officials that died shortly before they were scheduled to testify before the
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>House Select Committee on Assassinations in 1977.
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[...]
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>
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>-- Brad
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While I agree with you Brad that there are many mysterious circumstances
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surrounding the JFK murder and I have often seen these various
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lists of people that died that were associated with the whole
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story, I have to make a call for objectivity for a moment.
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Let's suppose one could make up a list of ALL the people involved
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in the story. Catagorize it if that would be helpful, but what
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I'm looking for is all the other people that belong on the
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list that are/were not dead at some point in time. Now, you
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have the sample population, out of that, check the mortality
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statistics of this sample group. Compare with general mortality
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statistics to see if the JFK sample has a higher than expected
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rate. Then I might be inclined to put more faith in these
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lists of people that "mysteriously" died.
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Another reference that I found to be credible:
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Contract on America - The Mafia Murder of President John F. Kennedy
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David E. Scheim, introduction by John H. Davis
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Zebra Books published by Kensington Publishing Corp. New York
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Copyright (c) 1988
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624 total pages, 380 pages text, 221 pages notes and appendix, 10 pages
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bibliography, index
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--Hiram [uunet!sco!hiramc || hiramc@sco.COM]
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