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314 lines
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Circumstantial Evidence of a Head Shot From The Grassy Knoll
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(c) - Copyright 1993 by W. Anthony Marsh
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Presented at The Third Decade conference June 18-20, 1993</p>
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<p> As much as we would like to have direct evidence of a head shot from the
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grassy knoll, such evidence may be missing, inconclusive, or suspect.
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However, there may be a body of circumstantial evidence which would indicate
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that the fatal shot which struck President Kennedy's head at Z-313 came from
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the grassy knoll. This paper will not present conclusive proof of a head shot
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from the grassy knoll, but it will cite examples of circumstantial evidence
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which strongly suggest that the head shot came from the grassy knoll. Some of
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the examples are well known, but need to be reexamined.
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The Zapruder film is the most well-known evidence of the head shot.
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Various studies and interpretations of it have been made. Some studies, such
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as the one done by Itek, have analyzed the movement of President Kennedy's
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head around the time of the head shot. They note that President Kennedy's
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head moves forward significantly from Z-312 to Z-313 and cite that as proof
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of a shot hitting the head from behind. What they and everyone else has
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failed to do is analyze the movements of all the occupants of the rear
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compartment of the limousine, including the Connallys. That is what I have
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done.
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My analysis of the movements of the Kennedys and the Connallys is not,
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unfortunately, based on the same reproductions of the Zapruder film as used
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in other studies, due to cost considerations. I made measurements in 1/60th
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of an inch increments on a photocopy set of prints from Zapruder frames 312
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to 321, as reproduced by Robert Cutler in his dividend to The Grassy Knoll
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Gazette of X-79. Bob's reference line is drawn through the center of the
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window knob. I made all measurements starting at the front edge of his
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reference line. However, I noticed that the distance from the reference line
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to the rollbar is not constant. This means that we can not use unadjusted
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measurements from these prints to calculate precise positions, but can
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estimate relative movements. This may be due to a variety of factors, such as
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variations in printing and copying each frame, changes in perspective,
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mismeasurements, or blurring. Some Zapruder frames are too blurred to allow
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accurate measurements. Each measurement of Nellie Connally's position is to
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the front edge of her hair. Each measurement of John Connally's position is
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to the front edge of his forehead. Each measurement of Jackie Kennedy's
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position is to the front edge of her pillbox hat. Each measurement of JFK's
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position is to the edge of his hair at the rear of his head. All measurements
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were lined up against the chrome strip in the background for better contrast.
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Be sure to remember that increasing measurements for the Connallys represent
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forward motion, while increasing measurements for the Kennedys represent
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rearward motion. Notice the direction and amount of movement of each person
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listed in Figure 1. Between Z-312 and Z-313, all the occupants of the rear
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compartment of the limo moved forward by about the same amount. Unless all
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four were hit by bullets (a practical impossibility), their forward movement
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must be caused by something else. The most likely cause is inertia due to the
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limousine having suddenly slowed down. Dr. Luis Alvarez noted in his study [1]
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that the average velocity of the limousine going down Elm Street sharply
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decreased just before the head shot. Some researchers have theorized that
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Secret Service agent Bill Greer jammed on the brakes or took his foot off the
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accelerator. Whatever he did, the limousine very quickly changed from an
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average velocity of about 12 MPH to about 8 MPH just before the head shot.
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Obeying the law of inertia, passengers in the limo were thrust forward in
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relation to their previous positions in the limousine. Further evidence of
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this effect is the fact that the Connallys continued to move forward while
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President Kennedy was being thrust backwards. I have not done a similar
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analysis of previous Zapruder frames to pinpoint the start of the occupants'
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forward movement, so I would urge others to do so themselves, in order to
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verify my results and observations. Figure 1.
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Z-frame rollbar Nellie Connally Jackie JFK
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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x/60" Z312 136 106 77 44 159
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 9 forward 5 forward 10 forward 6 forward 7
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z313 145 111 87 38 152
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 2 forward 2 forward 1 rearward 1 forward 1
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z314 147 113 88 39 151
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 4 0 forward 4 forward 6 rearward 6
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z315 151 113 92 33 157
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 3 forward 2 forward 1 rearward 1 rearward 9
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z316 148 115 93 34 166
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 2 forward 2 forward 7 forward 4 rearward 11
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z317 150 117 100 30 177
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 3 forward 5 forward 2 rearward 5
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z319 153 122 NA 28 182
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 0 forward 4 forward 3 rearward 14
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z320 153 126 130 25 196
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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difference 4 rearward 1 forward 1
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----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
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Z321 157 NA NA 26 195</p>
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<p> Perhaps the most controversial evidence produced by the House Select
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Committee on Assassinations would be the acoustical studies. In my opinion,
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the conclusion that there was a conspiracy should not rest entirely on the
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acoustical studies. But the acoustical studies are useful for establishing
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the time between shots. All times are measured in seconds after the
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microphone became stuck open for several minutes. BBN found 4 shots on the
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tape, 3 of which came from the TSBD at 137.70, 139.27, and 145.61
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respectively. The grassy knoll shot was found by Weiss and Aschkenasy to be
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recorded at 144.90. There was a fifth set of impulses which was rejected by
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HSCA as being a false alarm at 140.32. I have looked at the waveforms more
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closely to try to determine when the muzzle blast of each shot was recorded,
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to a greater degree of accuracy. My best estimate for each shot is 137.702,
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139.268, 140.339, 144.895, and 145.608. You can get a general idea of the
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spacing between shots by subtracting one time from another. But there is an
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additional variable which must be taken into account. BBN found that the
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recorder used that day was running about 5% slow, so all times must be
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multiplied by about 1.05 in order to restore the original spacing. A more
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accurate correction factor might be borrowed from the work which W&A did on
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the grassy knoll shot. They found that a correction factor of 1.043 produced
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the best fit for echo delays compared to their predicted model. Another
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possible corroboration for the 1.043 correction factor is the 'bell' sound
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found by BBN at 152.5. Although Todd Vaughan believes that it is only
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electrical interference, if we can determine its true frequency, we can
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derive the most accurate correction factor. That holds true for many other
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sounds on the tape, such as car horns, tire squeals, police sirens, etc. BBN
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found that the 'bell' sound had a nominal pitch of 420 Hz. This is close to
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the note A, which is usually 440 Hz. If the sound is really a bell, it might
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have been tuned to A=440. We do not know for sure what type of bell it was.
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Most people have assumed that it is a carillon bell, but it could be a train
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bell, a ship's bell, or a victory bell on a college campus. There are a
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couple of other possible tunings which would produce a correction factor
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close to 1.043. If the bell had been tuned using a mean-tone temperament
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scale, it might have a real pitch of 438.075 Hz. Dividing that by 420 would
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give us a correction factor of 1.0430357. If the bell had been tuned to an
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old English standard of A=438.9, dividing that by 420 would give us a
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correction factor of 1.045. Applying the correction factor to the spacing
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between shots as found by BBN will give us the true spacing between muzzle
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blasts picked up by McLain's cycle. If we want to then translate those into
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Zapruder frames, we must multiply each interval by 18.3 frames. Figure 2 is
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a rough approximation of how many frames there were between all 5 muzzle
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blasts.
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Matching these times to the Zapruder film is more complicated and
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depends on making several real-world assumptions such as the speed of the
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bullets. We can be fairly confident in ruling out the first three shots as
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matching the head shot at Z-313, as such a match would place the first shot
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after Z-255, when we can clearly see in Altgens 1-6 that President Kennedy
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and Governor Connally have already been hit. The HSCA matched the last shot
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with Z-313, because their medical evidence indicated that the head shot came
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from behind. My alternative matchup tests the idea that the head shot came
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from the grassy knoll.</p>
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<p>Figure 2.
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origin tape time spacing *1.043 *18.3 Z-frame Z-frame
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TSBD 137.702 162 176
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> 1.566 1.633 29.89
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TSBD 139.268 192 206
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> 1.071 1.117 20.44
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TSBD 140.339 212 226
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> 4.556 4.752 86.96
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Knoll 144.895 299 313
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> 0.713 0.744 13.61
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TSBD 145.608 313 327</p>
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<p> The first problem we notice with the HSCA version is that the first shot
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is much too early. No other evidence supports a shot that early and clearly
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President Kennedy was not hit by a bullet close to that frame. The first shot
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was probably a miss. The HSCA places the hit to JFK's back at around Z190-
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192. The problem with that is that we can see President Kennedy in the
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Zapruder film during the range Z-190 to Z-210. He does not yet appear to be
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reacting to being hit by a bullet. There is absolutely no indication that
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Governor Connally was struck by a bullet at about that time, nor at about Z-
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210 to Z-212, if we accept the fifth shot which HSCA rejected.
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My matchup would indicate a hit to JFK's back somewhere in the range of
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Z-206 to Z-210, and a hit to Connally's back somewhere in the range of Z-226
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to Z-230. I believe this is more consistent with previous studies of the
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Zapruder film and eyewitness testimony. If there is some way to prove exactly
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when either President Kennedy or Governor Connally received their back
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wounds, that would force us to choose between the HSCA version and mine,
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regardless of other evidence.
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Just as Altgens 1-6 helps us eliminate the first three shots as matches
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with Z-313, it may also help us eliminate the last shot from the TSBD as
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matching Z-313. Everyone is familiar with the fact that CE350 shows a crack
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on the windshield and that it is not seen in Altgens 1-6, but is seen in
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Altgens 1-7. There has been some doubt about which shot from which direction
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caused that crack. I believe that I am the first person to notice something
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in CE350 which would resolve the doubt. If you look carefully at CE350, you
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will notice that the back of the rearview mirror is dented, but you can see
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that it was not dented in Altgens 1-6. This damage was caused by a bullet
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fragment which struck the windshield from the inside and ricochetted into the
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rearview mirror. Many people believe this fragment came from the head shot,
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which would been fired from the TSBD. I tend to feel that all the damage to
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the limousine, consisting of the crack in the windshield, dented rearview
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mirror and dented chrome topping, was done by the same shot. If we can find
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evidence which pinpoints when that damage was done, we may be able to show
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that it came several frames after Z-313. Photographic enhancement of the
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Zapruder film, Muchmore film or the Bronson film might reveal that the
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windshield was not cracked by Z-314. If that turns out to be true, then the
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last shot from the TSBD must have missed JFK's head and hit the windshield.
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In turn, that would mean that the fatal head shot came from the grassy knoll.
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I seriously doubt that there is any photograph which would show exactly when
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the rearview mirror was dented, but perhaps some as-yet-undiscovered
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photograph would show when the chrome topping was dented. That dent could
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only have been caused by a shot from behind the limo. If it was undented at
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Z-314, that would prove that the head shot came from the grassy knoll.
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Another factor which might influence our choosing the HSCA version or
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mine would be the jiggle analysis of the Zapruder film. Even the HSCA
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admitted that the jiggle analysis matched better when the grassy knoll shot
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was lined up with Z-313. [2] Figure 3 compares the timing of the impulses
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to the Zapruder film. The HSCA rejected the shot which is indicated in
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brackets as being too fast for Oswald to have fired. The jiggle analysis
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measured the amount of panning error by Zapruder. To simply and clarify,
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I have put the groups into ascending order. The group with the largest
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amount of blur is marked 'A', the second largest 'B', etc. I have chosen
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the Hartmann figures to be representative, as his are usually midway
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between Alvarez or Scott's figures. Zapruder's camera ran at 18.3 frames
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per second on average.</p>
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<p> Figure 3. Two comparisons of jiggle analysis to acoustical data
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Frames Group
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158-159 D
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191-197 B Note that the start of a jiggle group may not
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227 C coincide with the firing or impact of a bullet.
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290-291 E In most cases, it takes several frames before
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313-318 A1 Zapruder reacts to a stimulus.
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331-332 A2</p>
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<p>HSCA Z-# hit? origin jiggle Marsh Z-# hit? origin jiggle
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137.70 161 miss TSBD D 137.702 179 miss TSBD VI#1 B
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139.27 191 JFK/JBC TSBD B 139.268 209 JFK TSBD VI#1
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[140.32] 140.339 230 Connally TSBD VI#10 C
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144.90 297 miss knoll E 144.895 312.6 JFK knoll A1
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145.61 312 JFK TSBD A1 145.608 328 Connally TSBD VI#1 A2
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The jiggle analysis can not be used as absolute proof of when a shot
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occurred, but it matches up better for the head shot from the grassy knoll.
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Could eyewitness testimony help resolve the question of which shot hit
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what? Secret Service agent Clint Hill testified (2H144) that the last shot he
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heard sounded as though it had hit some metal place. If he in fact had heard
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the last shot from the TSBD hit the chrome topping, that would not, in and of
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itself, prove that the TSBD shot missed JFK's head, as the dent could have
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been caused by a fragment from the head shot. But it would narrow the range
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during which the chrome topping was dented to between Z-313 to Z-331 and make
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it more likely that the chrome topping was dented at the same time that the
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windshield was cracked, rather than much earlier as some have speculated.
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On pages 126-129 of Six Seconds in Dallas, Josiah Thompson cites the
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statements of several witnesses who thought that a shot came from the grassy
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knoll. William Newman felt that he and his family were in the direct path of
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gunfire. Given their position, it seems more likely that the head shot came
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from behind the fence on the grassy knoll than from the TSBD. Emmett Hudson,
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who was standing on the steps leading up to the pergola, said that the shots
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sounded as if they came from behind him, above his head and to his left. That
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would place the origin near the fence. Zapruder felt that the head shot had
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come from behind him and whistled past his right ear. Between these two
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witnesses and behind them is the corner of the fence. W&A found a probable
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shockwave at 24 ms. before the muzzle blast of the grassy knoll shot.
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Assuming the weapon was aimed at the limousine, we can make a rough
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calculation of the velocity of the bullet and the resultant angle of the
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shockwave. Although the calculation for the decay of the shockwave is too
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difficult for me, a rough calculation yielded an exit velocity of the bullet
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at about 1564.5 fps. This would create a shockwave of at least 45 degrees on
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either side of the flightpath of the bullet. All three witnesses were within
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the cone of that shockwave and would have felt it very strongly.
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How can we know whether the weapon was aimed at the limousine? If it had
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been aimed in some opposite direction, the open microphone would have been
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outside the cone of the shockwave and thus the shockwave would not have been
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recorded. Another indication of where the weapon was aimed can be found in
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the statement that Sam Holland made to Josiah Thompson when he was shown a
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very clear copy of the Moorman 2 Polaroid. He felt that the viewpoint was
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looking right down the barrel of the gun. Given Mary Moorman's position, the
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gun would have been aimed at the limousine. In Moorman 2 we can see the head
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of a man peering over the fence, about 9 feet from the corner. Interestingly,
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this is the same spot where W&A located the origin of the grassy knoll shot,
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unaware of the existence of Moorman 2. In Moorman 2 we do not see a side view
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of any weapon as we might expect if it was not aimed at the limo. Whoever
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this man was, he moved from that position very quickly after the head shot.
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There is no one there in later Zapruder frames or in the Stoughton
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photograph, taken shortly after the head shot. The Stoughton photograph has
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never been analyzed. The Warren Commission and the House Committee were
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unaware of its existence. I believe that no one had ever studied it before I
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found it at the JFK Library. Unfortunately, I do not have the resources to
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properly analyze it and obviously the government will not, as it might reveal
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the presence of a gunman on the grassy knoll. One independent researcher,
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Dale Meyers, has done some computer analysis which suggests that there is a
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person behind the fence, several feet to the right of the corner.
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Many witnesses can be seen reacting to the shots in various films. Some
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fell to the ground very quickly while others did not seem to realize the
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danger. We would expect those witnesses closest to the gun on the grassy
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knoll to react very quickly and dramatically to the shockwave whizzing past
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them from the grassy knoll. One of the best films to observe their reactions
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was taken by Marie Muchmore. In Muchmore frame 42 we can see Hudson and his
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two companions on the steps leading up to the pergola. They do not seem to be
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reacting to any gunshots. In frame 55 we can see that two of the men are
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reacting. It seems inconceivable that these men would not have reacted to the
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sound of a shockwave coming from so close behind them. If the grassy knoll
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shot was the miss before the head shot, we would expect to see these men
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react before the head shot. The fact that they did not react until after the
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head shot would seem to indicate that the head shot came from the grassy
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knoll.
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Based on the circumstantial evidence we have now, I believe it is more
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likely that the head shot came from the grassy knoll. Existing evidence can
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and should be examined further. More information can be gleaned from existing
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data by novel analyses. The release of withheld data could provide new clues
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and allow us to verify certain methods, such as the acoustical studies. I
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urge other researchers to look for new evidence and perform new analyses.</p>
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<p>------
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1. W. Peter Trower, ed., "Discovering Alvarez", (Chicago: The University
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Press, 1987), pp. 210-224. Also HSCA Vol. I, pp. 428-442.
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2. House Select Committee on Assassinations, Report, p.80, footnote 16</p>
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<p> |