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64 lines
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64 lines
3.0 KiB
Plaintext
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In Kevin Phillip's new book (The Politics of Rich and Poor, 1990)
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he argues that the Republican political cycle is coming to an end.
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If not in George Bush's defeat in 92, then the next term. He
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argued that the Republicans would come into their own in a book
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published in '67 called The Emerging Republican Majority. In '68
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Nixon was elected and it has been a Republican White House since
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with a "Carter blip" after Watergate. What Phillips argues is
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that there are these long cycles of power in American politics
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with "blips" or what he calls "minority interruptions" of oppo-
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sition parties in for a term or two. Phillips was the chief Re-
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publican strategist for the 1968 Presidential Campaign.
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________________________
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Cycles of American Presidential
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Politics since 1800
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---------
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Initial period of Minority
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One Party Interruption
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Cycle Dominance
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---------------------------------------------------------------
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Jeffersonian Jefferson 1800-08
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Era Madison 1808-16 Quincy Adams 1824-28
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Democratic- Monroe 1816-24 (National-Republican)
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Republican (24 years)
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1800-28
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----------------------------
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Jacksonian Jackson 1828-36 Harrison-Tyler (Whig)
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Era Van Buren 1836-40 1840-44
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Democratic Polk 1844-48 Taylor-Fillmore (Whig)
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1828-1860 (16 of 20 Years) 1848-52
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----------------------------
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Civil War Lincoln-Johnson Cleveland 1884-88
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Republican 1860-68 1892-96
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1860-96 Grant 1868-76 (No presidential candidate
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Hayes 1876-80 of either party won a
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Garfield-Arthur majority of the popular
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1880-84 vote between 1876-92)
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(24 years)
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----------------------------
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Industrial McKinley-T.R. Roosevelt
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Republican 1896-1908
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1896-1932 Taft 1908-1912 Wilson 1912-20
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Harding-Coolidge (Democratic)
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1920-28
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Hoover 1928-1932
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(28 of 36 years)
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----------------------------
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New Deal Roosevelt-Truman Eisenhower (Republican)
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Democratic 1932-1952 1952-1960
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1932-68 (20 years)
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Kennedy-Johnson
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1960-68
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----------------------------
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Civil Nixon-Ford
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Disturbance 1968-76 Carter (Democrat)
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Republican Reagan-Bush
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1968- ??? 1980-???
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.
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All of these six eras began with watershed elections in which
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(1) the previous incumbent party was defeated and (2) a new alignment
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of party presidential voting--resting on a new coalition--was
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established, which kept its essential shape for at least 20 years.
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Interestingly, all three Republican hegemonies have produced a
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"capitalist heyday" during the second half of the cycle.
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